Trump’s claim that Mexican cartels and the government are allied is not a reality
Mexico breathed a sigh of relief this week when Donald Trump postponed his threatened tariffs by a month, seemingly averting an economic crisis at the last moment.
However, one lingering issue remains: the Trump administration’s vague yet startling claim of an “intolerable alliance” between Mexico’s government and organized crime.
This phrase marked a significant shift in U.S. rhetoric and dominated headlines in Mexico. Yet, experts argue it is misleading.
“Of course, Mexico has a corruption problem,” said Carlos Pérez Ricart, a political scientist in Mexico City. “But the Mexican government is not an ally of organized crime. Those who claim otherwise are either misinformed or deliberately misrepresenting the situation.”
Will Freeman, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, described organized crime as a pervasive yet inconsistent “parallel power.” “Sometimes it collaborates with the state; other times it opposes it. In some cases, they merely coexist,” he explained.
Corruption is most prevalent at the municipal level, which is both the most vulnerable part of the government and the area where criminal groups seek arrangements with officials to consolidate their control over local territories and businesses.
This was evident during the 2024 elections when over 30 candidates were assassinated as criminal organizations vied for influence. Corruption, however, extends beyond local levels.
Several state governors have been extradited to the U.S. for links to organized crime. The Trump administration also pointed to the case of Genaro García Luna, Mexico’s former security chief, who was recently sentenced to 38 years in a U.S. prison for accepting bribes from the Sinaloa cartel.
Another high-profile case involved Salvador Cienfuegos, a former defense minister arrested in Los Angeles on drug trafficking charges, only to be released after pressure from the Mexican government.
Despite these cases, experts argue that labeling the entire government as an ally of organized crime is misleading. Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, a researcher at the University of California, San Diego, emphasized that the phrasing suggests full governmental awareness and even complicity.
“No one denies corruption exists in Mexico,” she said. “But that’s very different from claiming the government is an active participant.”
US frustration may have stemmed from its perception that the Mexican government has more intelligence than it acts on. “The army has such power in Mexico,” said Freeman. “I think they see and hear everything that’s going on.”
But inaction may just reflect differing priorities: while the US wants to go after top drug traffickers, Mexico primarily wants to reduce violence. And in practice, these objectives often run counter to one another, said Pérez Ricart.
Last year, Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, who founded the Sinaloa cartel with Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, was detained along with one of Guzmán’s sons after a small plane arrived in the US.
This started a war within the Sinaloa cartel that has killed or disappeared almost 2,000 people so far.
The Mexican government was blindsided by the arrests and blamed the US for triggering the violence. US authorities have denied their involvement while celebrating the arrest of El Mayo.
“This is what happens when you have unilateral, uncoordinated actions,” said Farfán-Méndez. “What is happening in Sinaloa is not a desirable outcome.”
If the US is frustrated by Mexico’s lack of action on fentanyl, Mexico has “every right to be frustrated, too”, said Pérez Ricart: “The US keeps selling guns that end up in Mexico.”
She added: “There’s frustration on all sides – but diplomacy is the way to resolve it.”
Trump and the Mexican president, Claudia Sheinbaum, both of whom took power within the space of a few months, inherited a bilateral security relationship in tatters.
However, the political situation in Mexico could be ripe to rebuild it – if the Trump administration wants to take the opportunity, said Freeman.
Sheinbaum has a rare level of political power, with sky-high approval ratings, and her party, Morena, holds a two-thirds supermajority in Congress.
Sheinbaum is also changing Mexico’s security strategy, taking steps to confront organized crime and untangle its penetration of local government.
“You have the ingredients in Mexico now – and maybe not again – to do something about this,” said Freeman. “If the gloves-off toughness from Washington was coupled with some actual intelligence, this could be a really important turning point.”
He added: “But ultimately I think Trump’s theory of the region is just to harden the US-Mexico border – and who cares what happens to the south of that.”
